
Strategy is often framed in boardrooms and leadership meetings as a calculated game of precision. Structured. Predictable. Controlled. It’s a narrative that feels right, especially in franchising, restaurants, and small business where systems, processes, and replication are emphasized.
But it’s also incomplete.
“Industry executives and analysts often mistakenly talk about strategy as if it were some kind of chess match. But in chess, you have just two opponents, each with identical resources, and with luck playing a minimal role. The real world is much more like a poker game, with multiple players trying to make the best of whatever hand fortune has dealt them. In industry, Bill Gates owns the table until someone proves otherwise.”
~ David Moschella
In the world of franchising and restaurant operations, this distinction matters more than most want to admit.
Chess suggests symmetry. Equal starting points. Predictable outcomes based on superior thinking and execution. It aligns well with how franchise systems are designed; playbooks, operating procedures, training modules, and brand standards all built around consistency and control.
But step outside the four walls of the system, and the reality looks very different.
Markets are not equal. Trade areas vary dramatically. Labor availability shifts. Consumer behavior evolves. Competition isn’t static. And macroeconomic pressures don’t ask for permission before impacting margins.
That’s poker.
Franchisees don’t all sit at the same table with the same hand. One operator may inherit a high-traffic corner with strong demographics and an established customer base. Another may open in a developing area, fighting for awareness and traffic from day one. One may have deep operational experience. Another is learning in real time.
Yet both are expected to execute the same system.
This is where strategy must evolve beyond the chess mindset.
Strong operators and effective franchisors understand that while the system provides the foundation, success is determined by how well that system is adapted to the realities of the local market. It’s not about abandoning structure. It’s about applying it with awareness.
In poker, you don’t control the cards you’re dealt.
You control how you play them.
The best franchise operators recognize this early. They don’t spend time wishing for a different location, a different lease, or a different competitive landscape. They assess their position, understand the dynamics at play, and make decisions accordingly.
They read the table.
They pay attention to competitor behavior, pricing shifts, local marketing effectiveness, and customer sentiment. They understand when to lean into the brand and when to localize the experience. They know when to invest, when to pull back, and when to pivot.
This is particularly relevant in today’s restaurant environment.
Rising costs, shifting consumer expectations, and increased competition from both national brands and independent operators have created a landscape where static strategy simply doesn’t work. A promotion that drives traffic in one market may fall flat in another. A menu mix that performs in an urban setting may not translate in a suburban trade area.
Yet too often, operators are coached to “follow the system” without being taught how to interpret the environment.
That’s chess thinking.
And it limits growth.
Poker thinking, on the other hand, acknowledges that while the system is critical, the operator’s ability to read, react, and execute within their specific market is what ultimately drives performance.
It also introduces another critical factor.
Position.
In poker, position can outweigh the strength of your hand. In franchising and restaurant operations, position shows up in multiple ways; location, brand perception, operational maturity, and even community integration.
A well-positioned operator with a disciplined approach can outperform a better-resourced competitor who fails to understand their market.
And then there are the dominant players.
Every industry has them. Brands or organizations that, as Moschella put it, “own the table until someone proves otherwise.” In the restaurant space, these are the companies that dictate pricing, marketing noise, and consumer expectations.
Competing against them isn’t about mirroring their moves.
It’s about identifying where they aren’t.
Where they’re too big to be nimble. Where they’re standardized to the point of predictability. Where local connection has been lost.
That’s where opportunity exists.
But none of this suggests that strategy becomes loose or undisciplined.
Quite the opposite.
The most successful franchise systems and operators bring a disciplined framework to an unpredictable environment. They rely on data, but they don’t ignore instinct. They follow systems, but they don’t become dependent on them to the point of blindness. They plan, but they remain flexible.
They understand probabilities, not guarantees.
For franchisors, this means evolving how support is delivered. It’s not enough to provide a system and expect uniform results. There must be an emphasis on teaching operators how to think, not just what to do. How to interpret their market. How to adjust within the guardrails of the brand.
For operators, it means taking ownership beyond execution. It requires engagement with the business at a deeper level—understanding financial drivers, local dynamics, and customer behavior.
It requires playing the game.
And that’s where this all comes together.
If you’re leading a brand, operating a restaurant, or building within a franchise system, the question isn’t whether you have a strategy. It’s whether your strategy reflects the reality of the game you’re in.
Are you relying on a controlled, predictable model in an environment that is anything but? Or are you developing the awareness, positioning, and discipline to navigate uncertainty in real time?
Because the difference between those two approaches is often the difference between stagnation and growth.
If this resonates, or if you’re looking at your current strategy and questioning whether it’s built for the real world, let’s have a conversation.
Reach out directly at Paul@Acceler8Success.com.









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